100% Chance of Stupidity

I just read an article about interpreting weather forecast data that said that less than half of the people in the study could correctly answer questions about a standard precipitation forecast.  I don’t understand what’s so hard about it.  If the forecast says there’s a 20% chance of rain than it means that the likelihood of it raining is 20%; that out of a hundred days with the same atmospheric condition that on twenty of those days (on average) it will rain.  It’s all just about probability.


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